Nearly nine in ten chief economists surveyed expect global growth to weaken over the coming year, but only 13% think there could be a global recession, according to a May 28 release from the World Economic Forum. The survey also found that 94% of respondents expect global inflation to rise as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drives up energy and food costs and disrupts supply chains.
The latest edition of the Chief Economists’ Outlook, published by the World Economic Forum, reports that nearly nine in ten chief economists anticipate weaker global growth over the next 12 months. This reverses earlier cautious optimism as conflict in the Middle East and ongoing disruption at the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about a major economic shock. Surveyed economists now rank this disruption as significantly more severe than last year’s tariff issues; if it continues into the second half of 2026, its impact could approach that seen during the COVID-19 crisis.
Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at World Economic Forum, said, “Only months ago, the Chief Economists community was cautiously optimistic. The conflict in the Middle East changed that, and the economic scarring from the situation thus far is already expected to last into the months ahead. The longer the disruption lasts, the heavier the long-term cost for those who can least afford it.”
Regionally, expectations have shifted most dramatically for Middle East and North Africa: 88% now expect weak or very weak growth there—the sharpest reversal recorded by this survey. Sub-Saharan Africa faces heightened inflation risks while Europe contends with rising stagflation fears due to weakening growth combined with inflation concerns. In contrast, India and United States are viewed as relatively resilient because of strong domestic demand and investment.
Despite these challenges, most chief economists do not foresee a recession within twelve months but warn volatility will likely increase across financial markets if disruptions persist. Seventy-nine percent anticipate greater private debt market volatility; seventy-four percent see increased public debt market swings; sixty-eight percent predict higher stock market volatility.
Artificial intelligence remains an area where most surveyed experts—92%—expect greater adoption over coming months. However, their optimism regarding rapid productivity gains has cooled since January 2026: meaningful benefits are now expected to take longer across almost all industries except information technology and education.
