Ron Butler, a mortgage industry commentator, posted a series of tweets on April 1, 2026, discussing the ongoing War in the Middle East and its impact on mortgage strategies and interest rates. Butler highlighted how developments in the conflict could influence decisions for borrowers in Canada and the United States.
In his first tweet at 13:59 UTC, Butler stated, “The correct answer is STILL all about the War in the Middle East
President Trump will address the American people tonight in what is likely to be some version of a TACO victory speech
If the War does end soon a clear Mortgage Strategy can be developed quickly
3/”
Continuing his commentary at 13:59:16 UTC, he noted the current advantages of variable rate mortgages but cautioned against potential risks by referencing recent history: “Today the Rate & Payment difference between Fixed & Variable greatly favors Variable
BUT the fear is a repeat of 2022 when Fixed increased quickly Borrowers poured into Variable & then the Bank of Canada raised rates faster than ever in history
So is Variable again a trap?
4/”
At 13:59:17 UTC, Butler addressed possible outcomes if hostilities cease, emphasizing central bank responses: “If the War ends soon the answer is NO
In Canada & the US Central Banks have both signaled they understand raising rates doesn’t fix the War
Both economies are weak, Canada MUCH weaker
If the War ends both Banks won’t raise even with some inflation increases
5/”
Butler’s remarks reflect broader concerns about economic uncertainty tied to geopolitical events and monetary policy decisions. His references to actions by central banks underscore that both Canadian and U.S. policymakers have acknowledged limits to what interest rate adjustments can achieve during periods of external shocks such as war. He also notes that while both economies are currently weak, Canada’s situation is more precarious.
